Markets widely expect the Fed to hold at 3.50–3.75%. The decision itself is not the story — the framework is. Reporting (originating from the FT) indicates Warsh may begin dismantling forward guidance as soon as this meeting: dropping the dot plot's rate forecast and stripping easing/tightening bias language from the statement. After CPI at 4.2% YoY and PPI at 6.5% YoY, fed funds futures now price a hike — not a cut — as the more likely year-end move. Traders are watching three things at once: does the dot plot survive and, if so, is its lone remaining 2026 cut erased; are inflation projections revised up; and how does Warsh frame the path in his first press conference. Retail sales land the same morning at 08:30 ET.
Markets widely expect a hold at 3.50–3.75%. What matters is whether Warsh begins dismantling forward guidance. Reporting suggests he may drop the dot plot's rate forecast and strip easing/tightening bias language as soon as this meeting.
After CPI at 4.2% YoY and PPI accelerating to 6.5% YoY, fed funds futures now price a hike — not a cut — as the more likely year-end move. Regan Capital: rate cuts are off the table, but a hike before midterms is unlikely.
May retail sales land the same morning as the FOMC decision. A strong number complicates any dovish messaging; a weak number raises stagflation concern.
Q3 delivered $24.0B revenue (+8% YoY) and a raised full-year outlook. FedEx Freight spun off June 1 — first report reflecting the new structure. Fuel costs from the Iran war are a key margin variable.
US markets closed Friday for Juneteenth. June quarterly options and futures expiration clusters around the shortened week, concentrating volume and volatility into Thursday's session.
Wednesday June 10 saw renewed US strikes against Iran, sending the S&P down 1.6%. Any escalation or de-escalation directly affects oil, yields, and Warsh's inflation calculus.
| Ticker | Company | When | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| LEN | Lennar Corp. | Mon AMC | Rates barometer. |
| JBL | Jabil Inc. | Tue AMC | AI hardware supply chain read. |
| PLAY | Dave & Buster's | Tue AMC | — |
| GIS | General Mills | Wed BMO | — |
| FDX | FedEx Corporation | Thu AMC | Global shipping bellwether — see spotlight. |
| DRI | Darden Restaurants | Thu BMO | Restaurant consumer read. |
| ACN | Accenture plc | Thu BMO | Enterprise AI spend read. |
| KR | Kroger Co. | Thu BMO | Grocery / staples read. |
| KMX | CarMax Inc. | Thu BMO | Big-ticket consumer read. |